Asteroid 2024 YR4

Recently there has been a lot of news about asteroid 2024 YR4. Evidently there is a small chance that its orbit will intersect with the Earth in 2032. We at FAS thought it would be appropriate to provide you with updates on this potential event so that you can decide to either take your telescope out for a close look at the asteroid or run for cover. Don’t worry, as you can see below, the chance of the latter is very remote.

Near the end of January, the probability of an impact increased to over 1%. As a result, the International Asteroid Warning Network issued a potential asteroid impact notification on January 29. At the same time, NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) increased the asteroid’s Torino Impact Risk Assessment to 3, which is in the yellow zone – most asteroids never get above 1.

In early February, the impact probability rose to over 2%. By mid February, the probability of an impact increased some more to over 3%. Now, people were starting to get a little worried and the press picked up on it. However, over the last day or so, NASA has lowered its estimate of an impact to well under a 1%.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be around .055 km (180 feet) wide and if it does “impact” the Earth, the likely result will be what NASA calls an “airburst”. This is similar to what was observed over Chelyabinsk in 2013 or, worst case, at Tunguska in 1908. In any event, it is far smaller than the asteroid that killed off the Dinosaurs 6.6 million years ago.

Here is the latest (to be updated periodically).

The folks at CNEOS (The Center for Near Earth Object Studies) forecast the potential impact date to be December 22, 2032. They estimate the chances of it hitting the Earth at .28% (1 in 360 odds). This means there is a 99.72% chance that it will miss.

Updated February 21, 2025